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When Dwayne Johnson takes the stage at San Diego Comic-Con next week, it would be truly heartbreaking to announce that Warner Bros is bringing forward the release date for his New Line/DC movie Black Adam from October 21 to earlier in the fall.

However, that won’t happen.

Black Adam

“Black Adam”
Warner Bros

Multiple distribution sources tell Deadline that a lot of big studio stuff is piling up in the post-production VFX houses, causing many tentpoles to push back their release dates. The immediate consequence of this is a shortage of tent poles from mid-August to mid-October.

Unlike last September and October, which together grossed nearly $1 billion from a backlog of large images during Covid Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, No Time To Die, Venom 2, Dune and halloween kills, Blockbusters don’t abound this fall. Before the pandemic, there is usually at least one tentpole (i.e. the It movies, The nun, sully), while the first weekend of October has turned into a launch pad for comic book movies like joker and the poison Franchise.

Riches like that won’t come this year, not until Universal/Blumhouse/Miramax Halloween ends coming october 14th and Black Adam the following weekend.

Sources say the postponement of films may also reflect production delays caused by Covid, meaning on-set stoppages if crew or key cast members fall ill.

Warner Bros announced this back in March Black Adam has been moved from a lucrative July 29 release date and moved to the current fall date. That followed a slew of other DC movies including The Lightning and aquaman and the lost kingdom, originally planned for 2022 but postponed to next year.

On Monday, the Burbank, CA studio announced it was Stephen King Salem’s Lot was also a victim of the pandemic in the post-production supply chain. It has pushed the New Line title from September 9 — the post-Labor Day weekend box office the studio created for its horror fare during the pre-pandemic — to April 21 next year.

SPIDER-MAN™: ABOUT THE SPIDER VERSE (PART 1)

“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse”
Sony

Animated by Sony/Marvel Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse should take off on the first weekend in October. However, just prior to CinemaCon, the studio delayed the Lord Miller feature film until next year due to the film requiring a significant amount of work.

After the last big tent pole of the summer, Sony’s action film Brad Pitt follows fast train Look for the weekend box office on August 5th, which will be shut down by mid-October.

However, let Wall Street cynics know that the expected slowdown in the domestic box office is not due to slowing consumer demand, but rather a lack of readily available marquee products.

Says one major studio sales executive of the late summer to mid-fall gap: “It’s not down to strategy.” Another added: “If studios had a product, they would release it.”

“Thor: Love and Thunder”
Everett Collection

Disney/Marvel delivered arguably the latest grand opening worth over $100 million this past weekend Thor: Love and Thunder (As of today: $144 million); we may just see one again Black Panther: Wakanda Forever coming November 11th. While many in the city feared streaming would cannibalize moviegoing as we learned to live with the pandemic, that hasn’t happened, though we’ll end the year with around $7 billion in the domestic box office, a number, which is still off pre-pandemic yearly highs of over $11 billion.

There’s a lot to celebrate at the box office right now: Thor: Love and Thunder repeated its fifth $100+ million opening of the summer and its sixth year since inception. Since theaters in New York and Los Angeles reopened in mid-March 2021, the monthly box office hit a pandemic high of $985.7 million in June, according to Comscore. Summer (the period from the first weekend of May to July 10th) at $2.27bn is 53% of the current domestic BO of $4.2bn for 2022 year-to-date.

The summer season is currently 12% below the same period in 2019, but that gap could widen as we get into deep August. Regarding the legs of Thor: Love and Thunder, Show has been told that the MCU title will be in theaters for at least 45 days before hitting Disney+. For the Taika Waititi-directed film, an end result well over 300 million dollars is conceivable.

The good news for the exhibition is that from now until the first weekend in December there will be at least one, sometimes two major releases booked every weekend. However, such offerings are largely targeted at a specific demo (i.e. women with spicy new-line adult drama don’t worry darling) or older adults (e.g. David O. Russell comedy by New Regency/20th Century Studio). Amsterdam on November 4th).

elvis

“Elvis”
Warner Bros

Many film studio executives have called for, greenlit, and championed a plethora of mid-budget and adult titles for the big screen—films that are increasingly finding their way to streamers. There is a plethora of adult-targeted movies this fall, becoming yet another litmus test of whether such a product can catch on. However, mid-size and art-house films have consistently been hits and misses in the pandemic market; The only bright spots are Warner Bros. elvis heading for $100 million in the US, and A24 Everything everywhere at once which grossed $67.6 million.

Expect plenty of adult films and award-winning films to have glittering premieres at the Venice, Telluride and Toronto Fall Film Festival Troika. Such starts cannot be ignored as critically acclaimed films coming out of the festivals can lead to great box office results. As an example, Jennifer Lopez’s splashes hustlers At TIFF in 2019, Stripper Caper earned an 87% Certified Fresh Rotten Tomatoes Critics Score and progressed to an opening of $33.1 million and a national final of nearly $105 million. Ditto for A star Is Born in 2018, which premiered in Venice and TIFF and resulted in an opening of $42.9 million, a final of $215.3 million, eight Oscar nominations and a win on a 90% certified new score led.

A $20-$30 million launch for each of the medium-sized adult demos in the pipeline, including The Woman King (16th September)Don’t worry darling (September 23) and the gay romantic comedy by Billy Eichner brothers (September 30th) would be a fantastic result indeed.

To date, elvis is largely the only adult drama that works on a large scale – and it does so with a long running time of 2 hours and 39 minutes. However, this film’s success stemmed from being offered as counter-programming in a summer sea of ​​franchises such as Top Gun: Maverick, that is approaching 600 million dollars, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($411M) and Jurassic World: Dominion ($350.5 million). Going to the cinema is a business of reciprocity and marketing power, a smaller film like e.g elvis on such tent poles cannot be denied.

Unfortunately, we’re facing a nearly three-month theatrical schedule that feels like it’s all counter-programming.

Here’s the theatrical release schedule for the rest of 2022:

15th of July
paws of rage (Par)
Where the crayfish sing (Sony)

“Nope”
Universal

22nd of July
nope (University)

29th of July
Revenge (Focus)
DC League of Superbeasts (WB)

fast train

“fast train”
Sony

5th of August
fast train (Sony)
Easter Sunday (University)

12. August
autumn (LG)
body body body (A24) – wide extension

August 19th
animal (University)

26th of August
The invitation (Sony)

2 Sept
Spider-Man: No Way Home: The More Fun Stuff Version (Sony)
Honk for Jesus, save your soul (Focus)

barbarian

“barbarian”
20th century studios

9 Sep
barbarian (20./Tue)

16 Sep
The Woman King (Sony)

23 Sept
don’t worry darling (New line)
avatar (again) (20th/Disney)

30 Sept
to smile (Par)
brothers (University)

7 Oct
Lyle, Lyle, crocodile (Sony)

14th October – where the schedule is heating up towards the holidays.
Halloween ends (University)
White Bird: A Miracle Story (LG)

21 Oct
Black Adam (New line)
Untitled Paramount
Entrance ticket to paradise (University)

28 Oct
The devil’s light (LG)

“Amsterdam”
20th century studios.

4 Nov
Amsterdam (20./Tue)

Nov 11
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (dis)

Nov 18
she said (University)
The menu (searchlight)

strange world

“Strange World”
Disney

Nov 23
strange world (dis)
bones and all (UAR)
dedication (Sony)
The Fabelmans (Uni) – wide break

2 Dec
violent night (University)

9 Dec – not dated

Avatar: The Way of Water

“Avatar: The Way of Water”
Disney

December 16th
Avatar: The Way of Water (20./Tue)
spoiler Alert: The hero dies (Focus) – wide expansion

Shazam 2

“Shazam: Wrath of the Gods”
David F. Sandberg via Twitter

21 Dec
Shazam: Wrath of the Gods (WB)
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (University)
I want to dance with someone (Sony)

23rd of December
Untitled 20./Dis

25 December
A man named Otto (Sony)

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